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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4992
Chasing Holo: Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$4.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $1.30 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask
Typical Pull
$0.95
Grail premium $0.35 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
304 editions
Depletion
98%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
216
of 12,500 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago1.7%unopened
Legendary0 / 8 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.06
Rare12 / 625 (1.9%)
5.6 per 100 sealed packs · launch 5.0 · 1.1× launch rate
Common1,068 / 61,867 (1.7%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 0 / 8 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 12 / 625 | 1.1% | ~1 in 18 |
| Common | 1,068 / 61,867 | 99% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 304 of 304 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Damian Lillard
3 Pointer · Nov 27, 2024
NBA Cup
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.98
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Joel Embiid
Dunk · Feb 21, 2022
2022 All-Star Game
RARESeries 3
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.98
Mint 2,022
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Jaylen Brown
Dunk · Nov 7, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.99
Recent Low
$4.25
Mint 699
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
LaMelo Ball
Reel · Nov 24, 2024
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.98
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Jalen Suggs
3 Pointer · Nov 19, 2022
For the Win
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Royce O'Neale
Layup · Nov 18, 2022
For the Win
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Ajay Mitchell
Assist · Oct 25, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Andrew Wiggins
Dunk · Nov 11, 2021
Throwdowns
RARESeries 3
FMV
$3.93
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Obi Toppin
Dunk · Nov 22, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$3.27
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Jalen Green
Reel · Jan 14, 2025
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Jaden Hardy
Dunk · Nov 6, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Jamal Murray
Block · Apr 3, 2023
For the Win
RARESeries 4
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Cam Spencer
3 Pointer · Dec 9, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.55
Recent Low
$0.99
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Quinten Post
3 Pointer · Jan 24, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$0.99
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.65%Wt 0.006
Franz Wagner
Dunk · Dec 5, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.31
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.02%Wt 0.01
Tyrese Haliburton
Assist · Nov 5, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.26
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.02%Wt 0.01
Jalen Suggs
Dunk · Dec 1, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.23
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.67%Wt 0.017
Moritz Wagner
Layup · Dec 15, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.94%Wt 0.019
Elfrid Payton
Assist · Nov 26, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.20%Wt 0.012
Kyrie Irving
Handles · Jan 18, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.39%Wt 0.014
Klay Thompson
3 Pointer · Dec 16, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.41%Wt 0.024
Hunter Tyson
Layup · Nov 3, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.57%Wt 0.016
Grant Williams
3 Pointer · Oct 24, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.57%Wt 0.016
Anfernee Simons
3 Pointer · Nov 24, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.18
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.85%Wt 0.019