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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5038
Throwdowns: Guaranteed Rare
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$23.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $12.54 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $23.00 ask
Typical Pull
$15.00
Median pull ≈ Actual EV — value evenly spread
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $23.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
37 editions
Depletion
97%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
42
of 1,200 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago3.5%unopened
Ultimate0 / 2 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.17
Rare126 / 3,598 (3.5%)
300 per 100 sealed packs · launch 300 · ≈ launch rate
Common84 / 2,400 (3.5%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 2 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 126 / 3,598 | 60% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 84 / 2,400 | 40% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 37 of 37 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Ausar Thompson
Dunk · Jan 5, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.35
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.43%Wt 0.014
Anthony Edwards
Dunk · Feb 14, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.43%Wt 0.014
Evan Mobley
Dunk · Nov 28, 2024
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$6.45
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.48%Wt 0.005
Jalen Duren
Dunk · Feb 22, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.86%Wt 0.029
Jayson Tatum
Dunk · Feb 9, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$5.75
Mint 599
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.024
John Collins
Dunk · Dec 14, 2024
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.99
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.024
Amen Thompson
Dunk · Feb 4, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.43%Wt 0.014
Bam Adebayo
Dunk · Jan 19, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.60
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.86%Wt 0.029
Gary Payton II
Dunk · Jan 30, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$5.50
Mint 599
Hit 3.81%Wt 0.038
Keon Ellis
3 Pointer · Dec 31, 2024
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Ochai Agbaji
Dunk · Dec 13, 2024
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.024
Devin Vassell
Dunk · Feb 8, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.43%Wt 0.014
Ja Morant
Dunk · Dec 8, 2024
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.95%Wt 0.01
Paolo Banchero
Dunk · Feb 28, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.99
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.86%Wt 0.029
Max Christie
3 Pointer · Feb 8, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 5.24%Wt 0.052
Santi Aldama
Layup · Feb 12, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 4.76%Wt 0.048
AJ Green
3 Pointer · Jan 9, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 4.29%Wt 0.043
Myles Turner
Dunk · Jan 5, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.86%Wt 0.029
Bilal Coulibaly
Dunk · Jan 26, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.024
Cam Whitmore
Dunk · Jan 23, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.024
Derrick Jones Jr.
Dunk · Jan 28, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.024
Obi Toppin
Dunk · Jan 7, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$2.99
Mint 599
Hit 2.38%Wt 0.024
Malik Monk
Dunk · Jan 6, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.43%Wt 0.014
Jonathan Kuminga
Dunk · Dec 26, 2024
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.95%Wt 0.01