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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5038
Throwdowns: Guaranteed Rare
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$27.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $15.60 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $27.00
Typical Pull
$20.00
Median pull ≈ Actual EV — value evenly spread
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $27.00
FMV coverage
100%
37 editions
Depletion
96%
live pool
Packs remaining
46
of 1,200 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 13h ago3.8%unopened
Ultimate0 / 2 (0.0%)
Rare129 / 3,598 (3.6%)
Common86 / 2,400 (3.6%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 13h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 2 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 129 / 3,598 | 60% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 86 / 2,400 | 40% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 37 of 37 (100%)Anthony Edwards
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$7.88
Floor
$7.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.40%Wt 0.065
John Collins
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$7.14
Floor
$7.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.109
Jalen Duren
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$6.29
Floor
$6.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.79%Wt 0.13
Ausar Thompson
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$6.00
Floor
$6.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.40%Wt 0.065
Keon Ellis
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$5.27
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.72%Wt 0.174
Jayson Tatum
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$5.25
Floor
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.109
Devin Vassell
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$5.16
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.40%Wt 0.065
Bilal Coulibaly
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$5.07
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.109
Paolo Banchero
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$5.00
Floor
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.79%Wt 0.13
Amen Thompson
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$5.00
Floor
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.40%Wt 0.065
Bam Adebayo
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$4.99
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.79%Wt 0.13
Max Christie
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$4.73
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 5.12%Wt 0.239
Ochai Agbaji
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$4.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.109
Obi Toppin
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$4.36
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.79%Wt 0.13
AJ Green
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$4.27
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 4.19%Wt 0.196
Santi Aldama
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$4.25
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 4.65%Wt 0.217
Ja Morant
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$4.18
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.043
Myles Turner
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.79%Wt 0.13
Derrick Jones Jr.
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.109
Malik Monk
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 1.40%Wt 0.065
Jonathan Kuminga
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.043
Zach LaVine
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$3.69
Floor
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.93%Wt 0.043
Gary Payton II
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.72%Wt 0.174
Cam Whitmore
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.79%Wt 0.13