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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5063

Chasing For The Win & Denied!: Rewind

Name: Chasing For The Win & Denied!: Rewind
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 5 USD

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $1.26/pack▼ 79% below the $5.90 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 85% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.90 askTypical pull ≈ $0.66 · grail premium $0.60 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$5.90] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

2,214

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

6,642

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$226

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.17

per pack we could price

EV reality check

Modeled $1.26/packvs realized $1.18 avg · $0.65 median · $3.42 p90(0.94×)

Calibrated estimate $1.06/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 122 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Coby White · Holo Icon	LEGENDARY	0.02%	$85.50	4.1%
Malik Monk · Ascension	LEGENDARY	0.02%	$45.00	2.2%
Kevin Durant

Sealed pack resale

Median $5.95 (90d)Last $5.94 · 1mo agoRetail $5.901,819 sales · 4 in 90d

trades ~1.01× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$5.90

Actual EV

$1.26

Net −$4.64 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 85% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.90 ask

Typical Pull

$0.66

Grail premium $0.60 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.21x

-78.6% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 85% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.90 ask

FMV coverage

100%

736 editions

Depletion

85%

pool · as of 22h ago

Packs remaining

1,635

of 11,000 minted · as of 22h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 22h ago

15%unopened

1,635 / 11,000 packs

Legendary3 / 11 (27%)

0.18 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.10 · 1.8× launch rate

Rare167 / 1,100 (15%)

10 per 100 sealed packs · launch 10 · ≈ launch rate

Common4,735 / 31,889 (15%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 22h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	3 / 11	<0.1%	~1 in 545
Rare	167 / 1,100	3.4%	~1 in 10
Common	4,735 / 31,889	97%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 736 of 736 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	94d ago
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	94d ago
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	95d ago
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	95d ago
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	95d ago
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	95d ago
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	95d ago
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	95d ago
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	95d ago
@Mr_Snap	$6.00	95d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Chrisballgame	$5.94	34d ago
@Tfire	$5.94	38d ago
0x488a…aaa7	$5.95	66d ago
@RamiD	$5.95

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Quenton Jackson	Base Set	COMMON	0.00%	$1.00	<$0.01
Coby White	Crunch Time	COMMON	0.00%	$0.32	<$0.01

Chasing For The Win & Denied!: Rewind

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV