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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5193
Chasing Holo Icon: Chance Hit II
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$5.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $0.86 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.00 ask
Typical Pull
$0.66
Grail premium $0.20 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
95 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 15h ago
Packs remaining
81
of 7,215 minted · as of 15h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 15h ago1.1%unopened
Legendary0 / 7 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.10
Rare2 / 359 (0.6%)
2.5 per 100 sealed packs · launch 5.0 · 0.5× launch rate
Common241 / 21,279 (1.1%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 15h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 0 / 7 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 2 / 359 | 0.8% | ~1 in 41 |
| Common | 241 / 21,279 | 99% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 95 of 95 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Mikal Bridges
Block · Nov 16, 2024
NBA Cup
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.40
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Goga Bitadze
Block · Dec 16, 2024
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Quenton Jackson
Dunk · Nov 19, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.42
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
De'Aaron Fox
3 Pointer · Feb 6, 2025
Fresh Threads
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 2,024
Hit 0.82%Wt 0.008
Keion Brooks Jr.
Layup · Mar 30, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.63
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.23%Wt 0.012
Drew Timme
Layup · Mar 28, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.60
Recent Low
$0.39
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.82%Wt 0.008
Walker Kessler
Dunk · Mar 1, 2025
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.50
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 2,500
Hit 0.82%Wt 0.008
Jalen Brunson
3 Pointer · Feb 27, 2025
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.33
Recent Low
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.47%Wt 0.025
Coby White
3 Pointer · Mar 1, 2025
Crunch Time
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.30
Recent Low
$0.23
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.06%Wt 0.021
Donovan Mitchell
Assist · Mar 6, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.27
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.06%Wt 0.021
Jalen Johnson
Dunk · Dec 3, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.26
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.65%Wt 0.016
Kyle Kuzma
3 Pointer · Feb 8, 2025
Fresh Threads
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.25
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 2,024
Hit 1.65%Wt 0.016
Ja Morant
Layup · Jan 14, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.88%Wt 0.029
Paul George
3 Pointer · Dec 17, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.47%Wt 0.025
Tyler Herro
Dunk · Dec 21, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.47%Wt 0.025
Julian Strawther
Dunk · Nov 7, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.47%Wt 0.025
Tyrese Maxey
Block · Feb 9, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.12%Wt 0.041
Andrew Wiggins
Layup · Feb 11, 2025
Fresh Threads
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 2,024
Hit 2.88%Wt 0.029
Devin Booker
Assist · Feb 1, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.88%Wt 0.029
Isaiah Hartenstein
Dunk · Feb 25, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.29%Wt 0.033
Jonathan Kuminga
Dunk · Dec 16, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.06%Wt 0.021
Precious Achiuwa
Dunk · Dec 29, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.06%Wt 0.021
Dejounte Murray
Assist · Jan 5, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.47%Wt 0.025
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Dunk · Jan 11, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.17
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.88%Wt 0.029