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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5236
First Round Rewind: Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$21.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $3.71 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $21.00 ask
Typical Pull
$1.10
Grail premium $2.61 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $21.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
226 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 2d ago
Packs remaining
95
of 10,000 minted · as of 2d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 2d ago0.9%unopened
Legendary2 / 200 (1.0%)
2.1 per 100 sealed packs · launch 2.0 · ≈ launch rate
Rare22 / 2,500 (0.9%)
23 per 100 sealed packs · launch 25 · ≈ launch rate
Common451 / 47,300 (1.0%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 2d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 2 / 200 | 0.4% | ~1 in 48 |
| Rare | 22 / 2,500 | 4.6% | ~1 in 5 |
| Common | 451 / 47,300 | 95% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 226 of 226 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Ja'Kobe Walter
3 Pointer · Mar 5, 2025
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$53.50
Recent Low
$53.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Trey Murphy III
Dunk · Mar 9, 2025
Ascension
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$49.50
Recent Low
$45.00
Mint 99
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
LeBron James
Block · Dec 16, 2024
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$13.50
Recent Low
$13.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
OG Anunoby
Dunk · Feb 2, 2022
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 3
FMV
$13.50
Recent Low
$15.00
Mint 749
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Damian Lillard
3 Pointer · Mar 9, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Joel Embiid
Reel · Nov 7, 2023
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Devin Booker
Jump Shot · Mar 20, 2022
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 3
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 749
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Jaylen Brown
Steal · Apr 23, 2025
2025 NBA Playoffs: Rare
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$8.75
Mint 299
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Russell Westbrook
Assist · Dec 27, 2020
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$3.50
Mint 499
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Bam Adebayo
Dunk · Jan 19, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.60
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
New York Knicks
Dunk · Jan 17, 2024
Squad Goals
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.50
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 500
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Trae Young
Assist · Feb 21, 2022
2022 All-Star Game
RARESeries 3
FMV
$4.50
Recent Low
$3.75
Mint 2,022
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Toumani Camara
Block · Jan 31, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$3.88
Mint 599
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Kawhi Leonard
3 Pointer · Mar 8, 2021
2021 All-Star Game
RARESeries 2
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 2,021
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Grayson Allen
Layup · Jan 11, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Guerschon Yabusele
Dunk · Feb 3, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Jaylin Williams
Assist · Mar 20, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Miles Bridges
3 Pointer · Feb 8, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
OG Anunoby
3 Pointer · Mar 1, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
Zion Williamson
Reel · Feb 28, 2025
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.69
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
P.J. Tucker
Assist · Jan 6, 2022
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 3
FMV
$3.40
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 749
Hit 0.21%Wt 0.002
LeBron James
Steal · Apr 22, 2025
2025 NBA Playoffs: Common
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 2,025
Hit 0.84%Wt 0.008
Luka Dončić
Jump Shot · Apr 23, 2025
2025 NBA Playoffs: Common
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.80
Recent Low
$0.65
Mint 2,025
Hit 1.05%Wt 0.011
Alex Reese
Dunk · Mar 23, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.53
Recent Low
$0.36
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.37%Wt 0.034