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RPC›NBA Top Shot

🏀

NBA Top Shot

Dapper Labs · NBA

Flow

🏀Top Shot 🏈All Day ✨Pinnacle ⚽Golazos 🥊Strike 🃏Panini ⚾Candy

What's your collection worth?Free, no signup. Total FMV + your top moments.

Run It Back: Origins Chance Hit

NBA Top Shot · Pack #5740

Run It Back: Origins Chance Hit

Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →

Common2 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$25.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$25.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $2.39 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 100% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $25.00 ask

Typical Pull

$0.40

Grail premium $1.99 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 100% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $25.00 ask

FMV coverage

100%

44 editions

Depletion

100%

pool · as of 11h ago

Packs remaining

29

of 16,000 minted · as of 11h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 11h ago

0.2%unopened

29 / 16,000 packs

Legendary0 / 16 (0.0%)

0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.10

Rare10 / 4,000 (0.3%)

34 per 100 sealed packs · launch 25 · 1.4× launch rate

Common48 / 27,984 (0.2%)

Pull odds by tier

2 slots/pack · as of 11h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	0 / 16	0.0%	depleted
Rare	10 / 4,000	17%	~1 in 3
Common	48 / 27,984	83%	~1 in 1

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Patrick Ewing

Run It Back: Origins

Joel Embiid

Metallic Gold LE

John Wall

Run It Back: Origins

Jayson Tatum

2022 All-Star Game

Amar'e Stoudemire

Amar'e Stoudemire

Run It Back: Origins

What's Inside

FMV priced 44 of 44 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Patrick Ewing

Dunk · Jan 29, 1986

Run It Back: Origins

RARESeries 2024-25

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Joel Embiid

Layup · Feb 5, 2025

Metallic Gold LE

RARESeries 2024-25

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

John Wall

Steal · Nov 2, 2010

Run It Back: Origins

RARESeries 2024-25

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Jayson Tatum

Dunk · Feb 21, 2022

2022 All-Star Game

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Amar'e Stoudemire

Amar'e Stoudemire

Dunk · Dec 31, 2002

Run It Back: Origins

RARESeries 2024-25

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Xavier Tillman

Dunk · Apr 25, 2021

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Mikal Bridges

Reel · Nov 23, 2023

Video Game Numbers

RARESeries 2023-24

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Keegan Murray

Reel · Dec 17, 2023

Video Game Numbers

RARESeries 2023-24

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Jonathan Isaac

Block · Nov 4, 2024

RARESeries 2024-25

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Saddiq Bey

Jump Shot · Mar 17, 2022

Metallic Gold LE

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Brandon Williams

Brandon Williams

3 Pointer · Mar 8, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Toumani Camara

Block · Feb 13, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Keyonte George

3 Pointer · Feb 6, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 1.72%Wt 0.017

Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham

Assist · Feb 25, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034

Tyrese Maxey

Block · Feb 9, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 6.90%Wt 0.069

Jordan Poole

3 Pointer · Mar 29, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 5.17%Wt 0.052

Keldon Johnson

Assist · Mar 22, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Jump Shot · Dec 22, 2024

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034

Shaedon Sharpe

Dunk · Mar 23, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034

Keegan Murray

Dunk · Nov 28, 2024

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034

Mike Conley

3 Pointer · Jan 1, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034

Devin Vassell

Dunk · Jan 4, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034

Precious Achiuwa

Precious Achiuwa

Dunk · Dec 29, 2024

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Dunk · Jan 11, 2025

COMMONSeries 2024-25

Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

5

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

10

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$11.63

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$2.33

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Patrick Ewing · Run It Back: Origins	RARE	1.72%	$11.00	15.9%
Joel Embiid · Metallic Gold LE	RARE	1.72%	$7.00	10.1%
John Wall · Run It Back: Origins	RARE	1.72%	$6.75	9.7%
Jayson Tatum · 2022 All-Star Game	RARE	1.72%	$6.74	9.7%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 10 of 44

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Patrick Ewing	Run It Back: Origins	RARE	0.06%	$11.00	$0.01
Joel Embiid	Metallic Gold LE	RARE	0.06%	$7.00	$0.01
John Wall	Run It Back: Origins	RARE	0.06%	$6.75	$0.01
Jayson Tatum	2022 All-Star Game	RARE	0.06%	$6.74	$0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	Run It Back: Origins	RARE	0.06%	$6.25	$0.01
Xavier Tillman	Throwdowns	RARE	0.06%	$5.00	$0.01
Mikal Bridges	Video Game Numbers	RARE	0.06%	$4.50	$0.01
Saddiq Bey	Metallic Gold LE	RARE	0.06%	$4.00	<$0.01
Jonathan Isaac	Denied!	RARE	0.06%	$4.00	<$0.01
Keegan Murray	Video Game Numbers	RARE	0.06%	$4.00	<$0.01

Edition EV = FMV × (its share of the pool's drop weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Computed Nov 5, 2026, 6:25 PM PT.