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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5852
Legacy Threads: Chance Hit
Common2 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$13.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $3.45 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $13.00
Typical Pull
$0.56
Grail premium $2.89 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $13.00
FMV coverage
100%
57 editions
Depletion
99%
live pool
Packs remaining
135
of 10,906 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 20d ago1.2%unopened
Legendary1 / 55 (1.8%)
Rare30 / 2,731 (1.1%)
Common241 / 19,026 (1.3%)
Pull odds by tier
2 slots/pack · as of 20d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 1 / 55 | 0.4% | ~1 in 136 |
| Rare | 30 / 2,731 | 11% | ~1 in 5 |
| Common | 241 / 19,026 | 89% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 57 of 57 (100%)James Harden
Run It Back: Legacy Threads
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$72.00
Floor
$60.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Dikembe Mutombo
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARE7
FMV
$48.50
Floor
$17.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Muggsy Bogues
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARE7
FMV
$39.59
Floor
$43.99
Mint 299
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Allen Iverson
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARE7
FMV
$30.33
Floor
$23.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Jalen Brunson
Squad Goals
RARE5
FMV
$16.85
Floor
$14.00
Mint 406
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Antoine Walker
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARE7
FMV
$16.20
Floor
$18.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
LaMelo Ball
Rising Stars
RARE2
FMV
$15.71
Floor
$12.00
Mint 2,021
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Gary Payton
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARE7
FMV
$13.60
Floor
$16.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Evan Mobley
For the Win
RARE5
FMV
$11.57
Floor
$6.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Jalen Johnson
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$10.10
Floor
$6.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Donovan Mitchell
For the Win
RARE6
FMV
$9.89
Floor
$7.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Andre Iguodala
Squad Goals
RARE5
FMV
$8.87
Floor
$9.85
Mint 490
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Julius Randle
Throwdowns
RARE5
FMV
$8.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Bam Adebayo
For the Win
RARE6
FMV
$7.98
Floor
$5.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
John Collins
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$7.75
Floor
$6.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Cole Anthony
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$7.40
Floor
$5.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Paolo Banchero
For the Win
RARE6
FMV
$5.93
Floor
$5.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Jaden Hardy
Throwdowns
RARE6
FMV
$5.50
Floor
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Kevin Porter Jr.
Squad Goals
RARE5
FMV
$5.00
Floor
$5.00
Mint 424
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Cam Reddish
Throwdowns
RARE2
FMV
$4.77
Floor
$4.00
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Kenyon Martin Jr.
Throwdowns
RARE5
FMV
$4.75
Floor
$4.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Mychal Mulder
Rising Stars
RARE2
FMV
$4.75
Floor
$4.00
Mint 2,021
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.78
Floor
$0.50
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.31%Wt 0.033
Amen Thompson
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.78%Wt 0.048