What's your collection worth?Free, no signup. Total FMV + your top moments.
NBA Top Shot · Pack #5852
Legacy Threads: Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common2 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$13.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $1.86 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $13.00 ask
Typical Pull
$0.40
Grail premium $1.46 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $13.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
55 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 2d ago
Packs remaining
131
of 10,906 minted · as of 2d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 2d ago1.2%unopened
Legendary1 / 55 (1.8%)
0.76 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.50 · 1.5× launch rate
Rare27 / 2,731 (1.0%)
21 per 100 sealed packs · launch 25 · 0.8× launch rate
Common234 / 19,026 (1.2%)
Pull odds by tier
2 slots/pack · as of 2d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 1 / 55 | 0.4% | ~1 in 131 |
| Rare | 27 / 2,731 | 10% | ~1 in 5 |
| Common | 234 / 19,026 | 89% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this packWhat's Inside
FMV priced 55 of 55 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
James Harden
Layup · Oct 31, 2012
Run It Back: Legacy Threads
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$40.00
Recent Low
$40.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
LaMelo Ball
Layup · Jan 10, 2021
Rising Stars
RARESeries 2
FMV
$16.00
Recent Low
$12.00
Mint 2,021
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Allen Iverson
Jump Shot · Nov 3, 2009
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$14.00
Recent Low
$10.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Jalen Brunson
Assist · Mar 30, 2022
Squad Goals
RARESeries 4
FMV
$11.70
Recent Low
$13.00
Mint 406
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Dikembe Mutombo
Dunk · Jun 6, 2003
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$9.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Jalen Johnson
Dunk · Oct 27, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$7.88
Recent Low
$6.48
Mint 699
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Muggsy Bogues
3 Pointer · Nov 11, 1987
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Gary Payton
Layup · Jan 17, 2004
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Donovan Mitchell
3 Pointer · Oct 25, 2023
For the Win
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Julius Randle
Dunk · Jan 22, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Mychal Mulder
Dunk · Feb 12, 2021
Rising Stars
RARESeries 2
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 2,021
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Paolo Banchero
Jump Shot · Feb 25, 2024
For the Win
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.67
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.76%Wt 0.008
Antoine Walker
Jump Shot · Jan 28, 2004
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Cole Anthony
Dunk · Nov 30, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Grayson Allen
Layup · Jan 11, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Naji Marshall
3 Pointer · Mar 25, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Andre Iguodala
Assist · Dec 21, 2021
Squad Goals
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 490
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Bam Adebayo
3 Pointer · Mar 17, 2024
For the Win
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
John Collins
Dunk · Nov 11, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Caleb Martin
Dunk · Apr 14, 2021
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Cam Reddish
Dunk · Jan 12, 2021
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Jrue Holiday
Dunk · Apr 27, 2021
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.38%Wt 0.004
Kevin Porter Jr.
Assist · Feb 15, 2022
Squad Goals
RARESeries 4
FMV
$3.40
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 424
Hit 0.76%Wt 0.008
LeBron James
3 Pointer · Feb 2, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.79
Recent Low
$0.75
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.44%Wt 0.034
