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NBA Top Shot · Pack #6739
Holiday of Hoops: Chance Hit
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$9.99
Actual EV
—
≈ $6.15 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $9.99
Typical Pull
$1.35
Grail premium $4.80 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $9.99
FMV coverage
100%
100 editions
Depletion
96%
live pool
Packs remaining
381
of 10,000 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 20d ago3.8%unopened
Legendary1 / 12 (8.3%)
Rare40 / 1,388 (2.9%)
Common1,072 / 28,600 (3.7%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 20d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 1 / 12 | <0.1% | ~1 in 371 |
| Rare | 40 / 1,388 | 3.6% | ~1 in 10 |
| Common | 1,072 / 28,600 | 96% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 100 of 100 (100%)Victor Wembanyama
Freshman Gems
RARE6
FMV
$889
Floor
$988
Mint 199
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Kyrie Irving
Deck the Hoops
LEGENDARY2
FMV
$578
Floor
$180
Mint 85
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Carter Bryant
Origins
RARE8
FMV
$57.75
Floor
$45.00
Mint 164
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Cameron Johnson
Fresh Threads
RARE8
FMV
$14.20
Floor
$11.00
Mint 284
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Donovan Mitchell
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$11.83
Floor
$6.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.09%Wt 0.001
Rui Hachimura
Throwdowns
RARE2
FMV
$6.50
Floor
$5.00
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.18%Wt 0.002
Michael Porter Jr.
Rising Stars
RARE2
FMV
$5.70
Floor
$4.00
Mint 2,021
Hit 0.18%Wt 0.002
Jaylon Tyson
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$1.12
Floor
$0.73
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.98%Wt 0.02
Paolo Banchero
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.90
Floor
$0.30
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.43%Wt 0.024
Jalen Smith
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.81
Floor
$0.48
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.71%Wt 0.017
Kyle Filipowski
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.78
Floor
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.05%Wt 0.031
Landry Shamet
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.75
Floor
$0.60
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.25%Wt 0.022
Karl-Anthony Towns
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.68
Floor
$0.26
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.52%Wt 0.025
Alex Sarr
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.65
Floor
$0.50
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.34%Wt 0.023
Ayo Dosunmu
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.58
Floor
$0.30
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.71%Wt 0.017
Keldon Johnson
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.52
Floor
$0.27
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.70%Wt 0.027
Andre Drummond
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.50
Floor
$0.39
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.32%Wt 0.033
Chet Holmgren
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.50
Floor
$0.30
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.07%Wt 0.021
Franz Wagner
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.49
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.77%Wt 0.038
Jakob Poeltl
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.32
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.88%Wt 0.029
Drew Eubanks
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.61%Wt 0.026
Svi Mykhailiuk
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.33
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.52%Wt 0.025
Jaylin Williams
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.45
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.43%Wt 0.024
Jerami Grant
Base Set
COMMON8
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.25
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.61%Wt 0.026