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NBA Top Shot · Pack #6739
Holiday of Hoops: Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$6.56
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.69 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.56 ask
Typical Pull
$0.90
Grail premium $1.79 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.56 ask
FMV coverage
100%
93 editions
Depletion
97%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
334
of 10,000 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago3.3%unopened
Legendary1 / 12 (8.3%)
0.30 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.12 · 2.5× launch rate
Rare34 / 1,388 (2.4%)
10 per 100 sealed packs · launch 14 · 0.7× launch rate
Common967 / 28,600 (3.4%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 1 / 12 | <0.1% | ~1 in 334 |
| Rare | 34 / 1,388 | 3.4% | ~1 in 10 |
| Common | 967 / 28,600 | 97% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 93 of 93 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Kyrie Irving
Assist · Dec 25, 2020
Deck the Hoops
LEGENDARYSeries 2
FMV
$320
Recent Low
$355
Mint 85
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Carter Bryant
Steal · Nov 3, 2025
Origins
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$45.00
Recent Low
$55.00
Mint 129
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Karl-Anthony Towns
Hook Shot · Oct 22, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$26.00
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Evan Mobley
Dunk · Oct 24, 2025
Equinox
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 249
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Jayson Tatum
Dunk · Feb 21, 2022
2022 All-Star Game
RARESeries 3
FMV
$6.74
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 2,022
Hit 0.20%Wt 0.002
Rui Hachimura
Dunk · Apr 28, 2021
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.20%Wt 0.002
Michael Porter Jr.
3 Pointer · Dec 29, 2020
Rising Stars
RARESeries 2
FMV
$4.94
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 2,021
Hit 0.20%Wt 0.002
Bam Adebayo
Dunk · Jan 19, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.60
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.20%Wt 0.002
Paolo Banchero
Steal · Oct 22, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.80
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.30%Wt 0.023
Jaylon Tyson
Dunk · Nov 6, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.80
Recent Low
$0.55
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.00%Wt 0.02
Alex Sarr
Dunk · Oct 25, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.65
Recent Low
$0.50
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.30%Wt 0.023
Ayo Dosunmu
3 Pointer · Oct 28, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.65
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.80%Wt 0.018
Jalen Smith
3 Pointer · Nov 9, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.53
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.90%Wt 0.019
Devin Booker
Jump Shot · Nov 1, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.50
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.20%Wt 0.022
Franz Wagner
Layup · Nov 13, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.48
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.79%Wt 0.038
Day'Ron Sharpe
Dunk · Nov 6, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.48
Recent Low
$0.29
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.80%Wt 0.018
Kyle Filipowski
Assist · Nov 12, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.45
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.89%Wt 0.029
Chet Holmgren
Dunk · Oct 28, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.44
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.10%Wt 0.021
Jaylin Williams
Assist · Nov 6, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.40
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.69%Wt 0.027
Zaccharie Risacher
Dunk · Nov 13, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.38
Recent Low
$0.25
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.30%Wt 0.023
Nikola Jokić
Assist · Oct 28, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.37
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.20%Wt 0.022
Keldon Johnson
Dunk · Nov 2, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.36
Recent Low
$0.27
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.50%Wt 0.025
Svi Mykhailiuk
3 Pointer · Nov 6, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.32
Recent Low
$0.29
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.59%Wt 0.026
Andre Drummond
3 Pointer · Nov 10, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.69%Wt 0.037