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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5788
Run It Back: 1970s Chance Hit Pack (Wave 2)
Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$11.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.40 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $11.00
Typical Pull
$1.20
Grail premium $1.20 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $11.00
FMV coverage
100%
90 editions
Depletion
98%
live pool
Packs remaining
93
of 5,000 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 19d ago1.9%unopened
Ultimate0 / 3 (0.0%)
Rare3 / 497 (0.6%)
Common276 / 14,500 (1.9%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 19d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 3 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 3 / 497 | 1.1% | ~1 in 31 |
| Common | 276 / 14,500 | 99% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 90 of 90 (100%)Moses Malone
Run It Back: 1970s
RARE7
FMV
$72.50
Floor
$70.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.36%Wt 0.004
Amar'e Stoudemire
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARE7
FMV
$17.00
Floor
$10.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.36%Wt 0.004
Calvin Murphy
Run It Back: 1970s
RARE7
FMV
$10.80
Floor
$12.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.36%Wt 0.004
Matas Buzelis
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$3.97
Floor
$3.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.36%Wt 0.004
Reed Sheppard
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$3.49
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.36%Wt 0.004
Jared McCain
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$2.11
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.36%Wt 0.004
Tristan da Silva
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.93
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.36%Wt 0.004
LeBron James
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$1.02
Floor
$0.85
Mint 2,500
Hit 0.72%Wt 0.007
LeBron James
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.78
Floor
$0.50
Mint 8,000
Hit 0.72%Wt 0.007
Ausar Thompson
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.61
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 4.30%Wt 0.043
Steph Curry
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.58
Floor
$0.24
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.58%Wt 0.036
Alex Reese
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.57
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.02%Wt 0.05
Bobi Klintman
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.52
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.94%Wt 0.039
Drew Timme
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.50
Floor
$0.45
Mint 4,000
Hit 6.09%Wt 0.061
Josh Giddey
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.44
Floor
$0.26
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.87%Wt 0.029
Darius Garland
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.43
Floor
$0.29
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.43%Wt 0.014
Keion Brooks Jr.
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.27
Mint 4,000
Hit 9.32%Wt 0.093
James Harden
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.19
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.23%Wt 0.032
Jaylen Brown
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.42
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.43%Wt 0.014
Bogdan Bogdanović
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.24
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.15%Wt 0.022
Damion Baugh
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.66%Wt 0.047
Nick Smith Jr.
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.37
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.79%Wt 0.018
Fred VanVleet
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.35
Floor
$0.24
Mint 2,500
Hit 2.87%Wt 0.029
Keon Ellis
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.23
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.15%Wt 0.022