The Pack Sniper — NBA Top Shot

Methodology — read this

Gross EV is the drop-weighted expectation of a single pack's pull value, summed across the live drop pool using RPC's FMV. EV / ask = gross EV ÷ the live lowest secondary ask. We rank by EV / ask — the ordering is the signal, not the number.

“Recently listed”, NEW and ▼ are snapshot-derived. Top Shot's pack feed doesn't expose a per-listing timestamp, so we snapshot the live pack book every few minutes and diff it. A pack is flagged NEW when its lowest ask first appears in our snapshot (within the last 2h) and ▼ when that ask drops. Treat them as “changed recently,” not a precise on-chain clock.

Variance is huge. EV is an average, not what you should expect to pull. A pack with one rare chase can show a high EV while the typical rip returns far less. We flag chance-hit / single-chase / heavily-depleted packs and show them by default; use the toggle above to hide them. The Simulate link on every row shows the real outcome distribution — use it before buying.

Only packs with ≥80% FMV coverage, an EV snapshot from the last 72h, and a live secondary listing appear here. EV / ask updates as the EV recomputes and the market moves; a deal can close before you click.

Want the honest history instead? Pack Reality audits every rip of the last 60 days →